Nate Silver might not be a household name, but he is receiving much attention this election season given his astoundingly accurate prediction in the 2008 election.
Silver, who began his career calculating political statistics blogging for the Daily Kos and now is blogging for The New York Times, accurately predicted the winner of 49 of the 50 states in 2008. So it’s no wonder pundits are eager to see Silver’s election forecast this year.
His predictions for this election come with some surprises, including that the 2008 voter make-up – strongly non-white and young – will again come out to the polls in similar numbers, and that President Obama has a 77.4 percent chance of winning the election. Some data, however, have predicted that young, non-white voter turnout will drop this year and that President Obama is tied with Republican contender Mitt Romney.
“Prediction is the name of Silver’s game, the basis for his celebrity,” wrote Dylan Byers in his Monday column in Politico. “So should Mitt Romney win on Nov. 6, it’s difficult to see how people can continue to put faith in the predictions of someone who has never given that candidate anything higher than a 41 percent chance of winning (way back on June 2) and – one week from the election – gives him a one-in-four chance, even as the polls have him almost neck-and-neck with the incumbent.”
Silver responded to Byers comments, attempting to explain his methodology using another of his favorite pastimes: sports.
“Romney, clearly, could still win,” Silver told Politico. “If the Giants lead the Redskins 24-21 in the fourth quarter, it’s a close game that either team could win. But it’s also not a ‘toss-up’: The Giants are favored. It’s the same principle here: Obama is ahead in the polling averages in states like Ohio that would suffice for him to win the Electoral College. Hence, he’s the favorite,” Silver said.
